Computer Ratings
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2010 National Basketball Association
Computer Ratings |
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This is my first rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Pts" column. You can the calculation for some upcoming games on the right. Don't forget to add in home "field" advantage, which is listed just below the current predictions on the right.
Ratings last updated Sunday 02/19/12, 10:05 AM ET
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BCS-Style
Rank Team W L Rating Pts Rank
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1 Chicago 23 7 2.938 8.67 3
2 Miami 22 7 2.853 7.77 2
3 Oklahoma City 21 6 2.717 5.44 1
4 San Antonio 19 9 2.425 6.00 4
5 Philadelphia 20 9 1.961 6.67 8
6 LA Clippers 17 9 1.775 3.58 5
7 Dallas 18 11 1.516 3.56 6
8 Denver 17 11 1.489 4.62 10
9 Atlanta 18 10 1.299 3.33 9
10 Indiana 17 10 1.195 2.32 7
11 Portland 15 13 1.160 4.98 15
12 LA Lakers 16 12 1.122 2.86 11
13 Houston 16 12 0.907 2.12 12
14 Memphis 14 14 0.670 2.00 14
15 Orlando 18 11 0.617 0.60 13
16 Boston 15 12 0.071 0.83 17
17 Utah 14 13 0.058 -0.25 16
18 Minnesota 13 16 -0.133 0.38 18
19 Milwaukee 12 16 -0.509 -1.12 20
20 Golden State 11 14 -0.556 -1.55 19
21 Phoenix 12 16 -0.888 -2.46 21
22 New York 12 16 -1.043 -1.72 23
23 Cleveland 10 16 -1.492 -3.89 24
24 Sacramento 10 17 -1.788 -6.56 22
25 Toronto 9 20 -2.058 -5.17 25
26 New Jersey 8 21 -2.664 -7.45 26
27 New Orleans 4 24 -2.808 -5.24 29
28 Detroit 8 21 -2.928 -8.33 27
29 Washington 6 22 -3.452 -9.18 28
30 Charlotte 4 24 -4.454 -12.80 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what
is used in college football.)
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PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES
Date Away Team Home Team Prediction
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Tue 14 Feb Washington Portland HOME by 17.17
Tue 14 Feb Utah Oklahoma City HOME by 8.69
Tue 14 Feb Sacramento Chicago HOME by 18.25
Tue 14 Feb San Antonio Detroit AWAY by -11.31
Tue 14 Feb Phoenix Denver HOME by 10.09
Tue 14 Feb New York Toronto AWAY by -0.43
Tue 14 Feb Miami Indiana AWAY by -2.44
Tue 14 Feb Houston Memphis HOME by 2.89
Tue 14 Feb Atlanta LA Lakers HOME by 2.55
Wed 15 Feb Washington LA Clippers HOME by 15.77
Wed 15 Feb Sacramento New York HOME by 7.85
Wed 15 Feb San Antonio Toronto AWAY by -8.15
Wed 15 Feb Portland Golden State AWAY by -3.52
Wed 15 Feb Philadelphia Orlando AWAY by -3.06
Wed 15 Feb Oklahoma City Houston AWAY by -0.31
Wed 15 Feb New Orleans Milwaukee HOME by 7.13
Wed 15 Feb Memphis New Jersey AWAY by -6.44
Wed 15 Feb Indiana Cleveland AWAY by -3.20
Wed 15 Feb Detroit Boston HOME by 12.17
Wed 15 Feb Denver Dallas HOME by 1.95
Wed 15 Feb Charlotte Minnesota HOME by 16.19
Wed 15 Feb Atlanta Phoenix AWAY by -2.78
Thu 16 Feb New Jersey Indiana HOME by 12.78
Thu 16 Feb LA Clippers Portland HOME by 4.41
Thu 16 Feb Boston Chicago HOME by 10.85
Fri 17 Feb Washington Utah HOME by 11.94
Fri 17 Feb Sacramento Detroit HOME by 1.24
Fri 17 Feb Phoenix LA Lakers HOME by 8.34
Fri 17 Feb New Orleans New York HOME by 6.53
Fri 17 Feb Minnesota Houston HOME by 4.75
Fri 17 Feb Milwaukee Orlando HOME by 4.73
Fri 17 Feb Miami Cleveland AWAY by -8.65
Fri 17 Feb Golden State Oklahoma City HOME by 10.00
Fri 17 Feb Denver Memphis HOME by 0.39
Fri 17 Feb Dallas Philadelphia HOME by 6.13
Fri 17 Feb Charlotte Toronto HOME by 10.65
Sat 18 Feb San Antonio LA Clippers HOME by 0.59
Sat 18 Feb New Jersey Chicago HOME by 19.14
Sat 18 Feb Golden State Memphis HOME by 6.56
Sat 18 Feb Atlanta Portland HOME by 4.66
Sun 19 Feb Utah Houston HOME by 5.38
Sun 19 Feb Sacramento Cleveland HOME by 5.68
Sun 19 Feb Philadelphia Minnesota AWAY by -3.28
Sun 19 Feb Orlando Miami HOME by 10.18
Sun 19 Feb Milwaukee New Jersey AWAY by -3.32
Sun 19 Feb LA Lakers Phoenix AWAY by -2.32
Sun 19 Feb Denver Oklahoma City HOME by 3.83
Sun 19 Feb Dallas New York AWAY by -2.27
Sun 19 Feb Charlotte Indiana HOME by 18.13
Sun 19 Feb Boston Detroit AWAY by -6.15
Mon 20 Feb Washington Phoenix HOME by 9.73
Mon 20 Feb San Antonio Utah AWAY by -3.23
Mon 20 Feb Portland LA Lakers HOME by 0.89
Mon 20 Feb Orlando Milwaukee HOME by 1.29
Mon 20 Feb New Orleans Oklahoma City HOME by 13.69
Mon 20 Feb New Jersey New York HOME by 8.74
Mon 20 Feb Minnesota Denver HOME by 7.25
Mon 20 Feb Memphis Houston HOME by 3.13
Mon 20 Feb LA Clippers Golden State AWAY by -2.12
Mon 20 Feb Boston Dallas HOME by 5.73
Mon 20 Feb Atlanta Chicago HOME by 8.36
Tue 21 Feb Sacramento Miami HOME by 17.34
Tue 21 Feb San Antonio Portland HOME by 2.00
Tue 21 Feb Philadelphia Memphis AWAY by -1.67
Tue 21 Feb New Orleans Indiana HOME by 10.57
Tue 21 Feb Detroit Cleveland HOME by 7.45
Current home field advantage is: 3.01 MAE for games to date: 9.01 These ratings fit to produce 0.70 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 6.02: 0.84 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.64. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.82. Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Home "field" advantage is shown first. MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but to me it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be. Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful. |
About the author
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I now work in Boulder, Colorado, in the broad areas of science education and numerical weather prediction (that is, forecasting the weather using computer models). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.